There is a lack of inventory here and across the U.S. The normal seasonal trend is for inventory to start to grow in late September on through the end of the year. It will be very interesting to follow this trend give the current low inventory numbers. Price will likely continue to show year over year gains in the +5% to +7% range. It’s exciting to see 499 sales for the recent 12 month. These residential sales numbers are for homes priced to $4.0M. The price range data at the top of page 2 really illustrates the strength in the current residential market. Currently we see only 18 homes on the market price below $500,000. The flip side of this is the strong showing in the $500,000 to $900,000 price ranges. There are 66 more home sales in that price range. This price range represents 55% of all home sales in North Kona.
Overall the distressed property inventory on the market continues a decline. The Percentage of MLS listings that are either REO or Short Sales island wide has declined (-2%) from last year. It now stands at 8% of all listings on average. In 2012 approximately 40% of the listing inventory was either REO or Short Sales. It is currently 8%. The Island wide REO foreclosure count for the four lenders followed is unchanged from a year ago.
Condo Pending Ratio data has resumed its upward trend. Overall improvement from 2016 is quite significant. Again shortage of inventory will be a continuing issue and will put upward pressure on price.
Recent data for Land shows improvement from last year’s numbers, but not to the extent of Res and Condo. Median Sale Price is the bright spot, +8% over the previous 12 months.
Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for North Kona Residential, Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios. The Pending Ratios are still showing significant year over year gains. It seems that the North Kona and Island wide data is continue to show a strong market that we have not seen since the recover began. This suggest that with 2017 we have entered a new phase of the market cycle often referred to as the growth phase.
The Kona vs. West Coast March 2017 data shows San Diego year over year appreciation gains matching Kona’s year over change. Given the fact that San Diego is a leading indicator for what happens in the Kona market this suggests we will see continued appreciation in the +6% to +7% range for the remainder of this year. The Case Shiller Home Price index data lags behind real time by about 2 month hence the data in the charts is only up through April.
As always Mahalo Nut to Realtor Broker Michael Griggs with Clark Realty Corporation Kailua-Kona office for allowing colleagues like myself to share these reports with the public and my clients. For a full pdf color copy please email me at email@example.com.