“Given the fact that San Diego is a leading indicator for what happens in the Kona market this suggests we will see continued appreciation in the +4% to +7% range for the remainder of this year.”
Residential data shows increase in 12 months of sales over the previous 12 months. Sales jumped from 419 to 489. This increase in sales is cutting into the inventory which is down 21% from a year ago.
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The price range data illustrates the strength in the current residential market. For the first time since the recovery began we see the Pending Ratios for the $900K to $1.5M and the over $4.0M price ranges in yellow Neutral market territory, up from the buyer’s market level that it has been since 2009 when the price range data was first reported. The Kukio and Hualalai Resort activity is at the highest level we have seen in this report. They are showing Eight Pending Sales with Median Price of $6.3M. The only price range still wearing the Buyer’s market designation is the $1.5M to $4.0M price range with a weak Pending Ratio of 10.4. The oversupply is 48 Active vs. demand at only 5 escrows.
The Hawaii Island Chart shows the season tapering off. The East Hawaii ratio is showing slight decline while West Hawaii is still on increasing trend but slower climb than that seen at the beginning of 2017.
Overall the distressed property inventory on the market or owned by lenders continues a very gradual decline. The Percentage of MLS listings that are either REO or Short Sales island wide is down 2% from 2016. The Waimea market area shows the greatest decline while Waikoloa and Hilo were up. In 2012 approximately 40% of the listing inventory was either REO or Short Sales. The Island wide REO count for the four lenders followed has shown a decline of 47 REO properties from a year ago. Puna still has the highest number, but has shown the strongest decline.
Condo data is showing the a large decline in inventory and significant increase in Pending Sales from a year ago. See Chart 7-the April seasonal dip and now this new sharp increase. This is unusual. The more typical pattern is for the dip we saw in April to continue. The Condo market overall is much improved from a year ago from a standpoint of market strength.
Recent data for Land is encouraging as well. Pending sale more than double what they were last year. The Pending Ratio followed a pattern similar to Condo’s with a pause in April and then soring in May. This increase in Pending Sales should translate into improved sales numbers going forward. This will be a welcome change.
The Pending Ratio Summary page offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for North Kona Residential, Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios. In the last report the Pending Ratios were all showing significant year over year gains. This reports Pending Ratios are showing the largest year over year gains we have seen this year.
The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2016 data.
The Kona vs. West Coast March 2017 data shows San Diego year over year appreciation gains at plus 6.4%, while Kona plus 4.4%. Given the fact that San Diego is a leading indicator for what happens in the Kona market this suggests we will see continued appreciation in the +4% to +7% range for the remainder of this year. The Case Shiller Home Price index data lags behind real time by about 2 months.
Mahalo Nui as always to fellow colleague Realtor Broker Michael Griggs with Clark Realty Corporation Kailua-Kona office for allowing me to share this bi-monthly report with my clients and the general public. You are the best Michael!