Residential Median Price is at its high since the recovery began, ($585,000). Escrow activity is up a strong 26% from a year ago. The inventory is exactly the same as a year ago. Almost 70% of the inventory is in the $700,000 to $4.0M price ranges. The Median Price of the active inventory is $899,000. The 26% increase in escrow activity suggests 2017 is getting off to a good start.
The Page 2 Pie Chart clearly illustrates the expansion of sales in the higher price ranges over $700,000. Surprisingly the $500,000 and lower price range continues to show a consistent inventory in the 20 to 30 home range. The increase in sales in the $700,000 to $1.5M price ranges suggest the Median Price will continue to move higher in 2017. I don’t believe in forecasts but my forecast would be this time next year we will have a Median Price in the $600,000 to $620,000 price range barring any severe economic shocks.
The island wide Pending Ratio data is showing a seasonal turn upward as the inventory declines and escrows are increasing at this start of winter selling season. East Hawaii continues to show a stronger Pending Ratio than West Hawaii. I is likely that this is driven by affordability
The Percentage of MLS listings that are either REO or Short Sales island wide continues its gradual decline. The Island wide average has stabilized in recent months at 9%. In 2012 approximately 40% of the listing inventory was either REO or Short Sales.
The Island wide REO count for the four lenders followed has leveled off since the summer. The year over year decline is only five fewer than 2016.
Condo year over year data is showing inventory decline from last year and +9% Median Price growth. The change into the higher price ranges appears to be in step with the market as sales are up +5% from a year ago Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. At a quick glance it tells you the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo and Land. Hawaii Island trend for the year is also included. The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios. In the Price Range section there is a very distinct shift in the Kona Residential market strength from $700,000 to over $700,000.
The Land market year over year stats show increased inventory and lower Pending Sales numbers. The most disappointing stat in the Land market is the decline in sales. On the bright side Median Price showing a nice gain. Land Median price is +8%. This could be one of the reasons for the decline in sales number. The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2016 data.
Pages 8 San Diego vs. N. Kona price trend forecast has been updated. The second Chart #2 is the one to watch. Historical data in this chart clearly shows how San Diego is leading indicator for N. Kona when it comes to market strength and price direction. San Diego’s price appreciation has been stable in the +5% to +6% range since 10/2014. This suggest that Kona’s price appreciation now running in a similar range will remain so for at least a year. The shortage of inventory in the lower price ranges in Kona could push that number higher.
For a complete copy of this bi-monthly market report please sign up for my email list firstname.lastname@example.org or send me a private text message to 808-345-2108. As always Mahalo Nui to Mr. Michael Griggs Realtor Broker with Clark Reaty Corporation Kailua-Kona office for allowing industry colleagues like myself to share these informative reports with my clients and the public. Not only valuable to me but everyone who gets to benefit from his dedication to providing these comprehensive reports. Mahalo Michael!!!
Until Next Time A Hui Hou!
Renee H. Kraft rs 51893
Hawai’i Beach and Golf Properties